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The Melikian Center: Russian, Eurasian East European Studies

John McAfee says: 1 BTC will be worth $1million by the end of 2020. Is he losing his bet?

Predicted
$12,570.80
Actual
KEEN Womens Saltzman Shoe Midnight Navy/Dahlia Mauve mEZGb
Bitcoin is
99.99%
below
2011-02-01 2017-07-17 now 2020-12-31
price data powered by coindesk

The red line steadily grows to $1,000,000.00 per BTC. Move the slider to zoom.

Draper Prediction (250k by 2022) McAfee Prediction (1 million by 2020)

It started with a tweet

John McAfee made a bet on July 17th 2017: One single Bitcoin would be worth $500,000.00 in three years. The closing price according to CoinDesk was $2,244.27 that day. Look what is at stake:

He later revised his bet and predicted $ 1 million by the end of 2020 .

Explore the prediction curve

The math behind it

Is this really possible? Bitcoin needs to grow at a rate of 0.484095526 % per day from 2017-07-17 to 2020-12-31 to get from $2,244.27 to $1,000,000.00. That is the red line on the above chart. As long as the blue line is above the red line, we are on target. Hover over the chart to get daily prices.

Compared to the enormous price changes, half a percent does not sound like much to you? This is the magic of exponential growth.

That parabolic curve - seriously?

When you zoom out, the curve gets steeper and steeper. Relax! Growth curves look like that. Take the Dow Jones, a savings account with interest or bacteria growing in a petri dish.

With a fixed percentage per time, rising from 1 to 10 takes as long as from 100,000 to 1,000,000. Both is the growth by a factor of 10.

That is why many analysts like to look at charts with a logarithmic scale where the y-axis scales in orders of magnitude.

Why would it grow?

Bitcoin is scarce. There will only be 21 Million BTC. If every Millionaire in the world wants one, there are not enough for every one to have a whole BTC.

More people adopting and buying bitcoin will raise the price.

This technology is still at a relatively early stage. Think the internet in the mid-nineties when the majority thought it was only for nerds and had no real use.

The market capitalization of bitcoin is still tiny, compared to gold, credit cards or the stock market.

Such an expensive currency!

You can buy and spend fractions of a bitcoin.

Sooner or later, it will make sense to use a like microbitcoin aka bits (One Millionth of a Bitcoin) and Satoshis (One hundredth of a bit). Then a bit will be a Dollar and a Satoshi will be a Cent.

How does something like or sound to you? A lot less expensive, right?

Maybe people will start calling a microbitcoin just bitcoin. No big deal. When we say calorie, we actually mean a kilocalorie.

What can go wrong?

Though bitcoin has proven to be secure and many people put their trust in it, there is still a lot that can go wrong. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose!

Bitcoin could go to zero and many people think so.

Is bitcoin wasting electricity?

Mining bitcoin is hard on purpose . The so called proof of work is what controls the money supply and what makes the ledger tamper resistant.

Bitcoin is both a currency and a ledger for storing all transactions. Gold would not have much value if it were easy to find or if it were cheap to create. A ledger that was easy to tamper with would not be trustworthy.

The bitcoin ledger is called blockchain and the entries are bundled into so called blocks. Supercomputers all over the world are competing to find the next block.

All these miners do not trust each other and reject invalid blocks. Someone trying to tamper with the blockchain would need an incredible amount of computing power and electricity to overpower all the others.

What about CO-emissions? Many miners are located in places with a surplus of electricity (geothermal power in Iceland, hydroelectric or solar power in the middle of nowhere). It is cheaper to send a bitcoin-block over the internet than building more power lines.

Still not convinced? Think for a minute how complicated the current fiat banking system is and you will agree that bitcoin is a lot more efficient.

Who is that John McAfee guy?

The founder of McAfee Antivirus. Some say he is a genius. Some say he is a lunatic. But that does not matter.

This is not about McAfee. It is about comparing the price to a prediction that sounds too good to be true.

Data-Source: Powered by CoinDesk

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Elizabeth Root, a licensed Loan Consultant at Better, explains how to decide whether or not to include another person in your mortgage application.

Many of our Better customers buy homes with a significant other, family member, or even a close friend by their side. If you’re in the same boat, you might be wondering if you should include that certain someone in your mortgage application as a co-borrower. Let's discuss whether doing so is right for you.

Start your mortgage journey today

What is a co-borrower?

Let’s start off by discussing what exactly it means to be a co-borrower. While you’ll often hear “co-borrower” used to refer to anyone who’s on the mortgage, lenders make a few more distinctions within that term. To start, a co-borrower is any additional borrower listed on the mortgage whose income, assets, and credit history are used to qualify for the loan. Both co-borrowers on the mortgage are equally responsible for mortgage payments and typically have ownership of the house (i.e. they’re both on the property's title). Having a co-borrower is not a requirement for getting a mortgage, but it can be helpful in that together, you and your co-borrower may find it easier to qualify for a mortgage (or a larger one) than you might have individually.

Co-borrowers are usually spouses or partners, but you can be “co-borrowers” with someone you are not married to, like a relative or friend. In this case, you’ll be referred to as co-applicants . The relationship and process are essentially identical to that of co-borrowers, but your lender will account for your separate finances by issuing you and your co-applicant individual loan applications for the same mortgage. It’s also possible to have a co-borrower that doesn't live in the home that the loan is for -- they are referred to as a non-occupant co-borrower .

You can also have a “co-borrower” who is not on the title and therefore doesn’t have ownership of the home -- co-signers are equally responsible for the mortgage as the actual borrower, while guarantors are only responsible for the loan in the event that the primary borrower can’t repay it. A common scenario for this is a parent who co-signs or guarantees for their child, whose mortgage application benefits from their parent’s added income, assets, and credit history.

Adding a co-borrower (or co-applicant, co-signer, or guarantor) can be beneficial as doing so could bring additional income and assets to the table. The combined income between the two of you may allow you to qualify for a larger loan amount, since you can afford higher monthly mortgage payments together.

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